Both have the motive and strength to make a move against us.
The Frank Kingdom has always been promoting the establishment of the Five Nations Alliance in the Mid-North Continent, but the alliance negotiations are progressing slowly. If our relationship with the Elf Race becomes tense, it will inevitably accelerate the process of alliance negotiations.
The Clergy is now deeply mired in a public opinion scandal, with minor Nobles cursing them for greed and Major Nobles complaining about their lack of discipline.
Out of a desire for retribution, many of the Clergy's businesses on the Continent have fallen into difficulty.
If the Clergy knew it was us who caused this, it would be completely reasonable for them to retaliate out of spite.
Of course, it's also possible that the Clergy hasn't discovered anything and is simply taking out its anger on us due to the Duchy's relationship with the Alpha Kingdom.