[Chapter 836: Shadows Amidst a Full Recovery]
The International Monetary Fund, labeled as an international fund, was largely under the control of American interests. Although Europe held some power, they were reluctant to engage with the U.S. unless it directly affected them.
Given Mexico's current situation, warnings should have come early. "Hey, take it easy. You borrowed so much money; don't think you can avoid paying it back."
Talking about Mexico felt pointless now. Any mention could potentially ignite a minefield. However, cooling down some of the overheated Asian markets seemed wise. The increase in foreign debt and short-term bonds had become a common phenomenon.
Unfortunately, little action was taken. Or rather, the plight of others appeared to matter little to them.
"Nick, I'm not sure. What if we keep losing money?"
"George, what are you thinking? We're going to make it. The exports from Japan have been growing steadily, and they are recovering at an astonishing pace. Trust me, this group will succeed."
"Alright, boss, if we can offset the losses in a timely manner, it's about time we brought this to an end."
"Don't worry, my friend; everything will be fine."
Nick Leeson, while trying to persuade others, was genuinely conflicted. If he had the chance to make a different choice, he certainly would.
At just 28 years old, achieving the position of branch manager at an international bank, Nick Leeson stood among the elite.
Sadly, once unchecked power was lost, it resembled a runaway horse.
Beliefs regarding the Japanese economy were far from uncommon. Even William White's think tank shared this viewpoint.
"Hey, Suzuki, you're back? You couldn't stay for a few days?"
"My two daughters are coming home; what can I do? They said it's for Thanksgiving, probably can't handle grandma's nagging." Suzuki shot a glance at him; the girls hardly listened to her, having been spoiled by this guy.
"Alright, alright. How is Japan doing? Any high expectations for year-end bonuses?"
From the available data, William White also considered Japan to be doing well. He was eager to know the true feelings of the Japanese people.
The performance of companies didn't always require a look at their financial statements. If employees had exceptionally high expectations, excluding unrealistic individuals, it typically reflected the true state of the businesses.
"Year-end bonuses? Many executives voluntarily took pay cuts. Other than a few exceptional companies, the rest are just scraping by.
Oh, by the way, I'm attending a friend's wedding, and I'm a bridesmaid."
William White was taken aback. A bridesmaid? She sure could stir things up.
"Dear, you already have two kids."
"Hey, that's on you."
"Okay, okay, my fault. But if you like wedding dresses, we can always try. Not that I want to get married, you know I have a fear of commitment."
Over the years, William White had developed quite the thick skin. A simple .38 wouldn't even scratch the surface of his confidence.
"Ha, not a chance; it's a sacred thing, and you can't mess around with that."
William White shrugged, expressing his disappointment. Suzuki informed him that the couple had long been due to marry, but the previous economic crisis had delayed things until now.
Of course, they were no longer part of the affluent class; they barely fit in as middle class. As for bonuses, expectations were low.
William White wasn't just focused on his partner's opinions. Japan had many research institutions capable of helping him get the necessary insights.
From the data available, expectations were highest in Hong Kong, while Japan's were the lowest.
As for the manufacturing index, what worked elsewhere didn't necessarily apply in Japan.
William White knew well that Japan hadn't truly climbed out of the recent crisis. Their primary issue was an excessively high savings rate; as long as that figure didn't drop, it indicated that the populace lacked investment intentions.
"Alright, Suzuki, go take a shower; I'll check on the kids."
"Sure, they're tired and probably about to sleep soon."
William White had managed to clear his thoughts. He wouldn't focus on GDP or manufacturing indexes. As long as household savings remained high, he wouldn't have faith in the Japanese economy.
Alternatively, an increase in personal loan amounts could indicate promise. Without support from either piece of data, it'd be best to call it a night.
While William White wrestled with these thoughts, Dominic, who was responsible for Tesla's Asia-Pacific operations, faced his own conundrum. Business was booming, and despite constant capacity expansion, vehicles still weren't enough to meet demand.
If it were just their company, he might not have been so troubled. After all, the overall production of vehicles in the U.S. wasn't high. But, even the neighboring Volkswagen was doing well; that notoriously ugly Santana was nearly impossible to get without connections.
It seemed that the owner's 4S shops could only handle after-sales services for the time being. Perhaps it was time to chat with the boss; sales in Asia were booming, excluding Japan, which still lagged.
"Dominic, what's up so early?" Usually, William White's personal line didn't receive many calls.
"Sir, Miss Lisa's phone isn't working."
"Ha ha, come on, this is America; relax. Our wireless signal is still as pathetic as ever. What's going on?"
"Sir, there's too much money in the market. Based on current sales, we might need to keep expanding capacity. But I'm worried about potential setbacks."
"You're right, Dominic. I won't increase next year's sales targets. As for output, we can increase production of other models.
By the way, what did you mean by too much money?"
"Throughout Asia, banks are eager to lend. The proportion of loans taken out for vehicle purchases has surpassed last year's by one and a half times.
Vehicles, phones, various electronics. A friend in Shanghai told me that the higher-ups are questioning the current economic momentum."
"Got it. It indeed seems overheated. If adjustments aren't made soon... Goodness, the banks will face crises, especially considering the issues within the American banking system. There would undoubtedly be many bad loans."
"Right, that's the main issue."
"Thanks, your Shanghai friend seems sharp. Keep in touch."
After hanging up, William White felt considerably better. It seemed that Dominic was doing quite well in Shanghai. Even sensitive topics proved to have informants.
Yet, he had also misunderstood something. The banks' issues didn't concern the general populace. What worried Americans most was rapid economic growth leading to inflation.
Cities might manage, and disposable income was increasing. However, it was a different story in rural areas. If prices for fertilizers and pesticides soared, the cost of agricultural products would skyrocket.
Nevertheless, some surprise lingered. Look at the bunch of fools around; America hadn't faced any economic crises. Without experience, they still possessed a clear understanding of matters. But here, people were still caught up in their blissful bubble.
Life resembled a slope; as one ascended, they saw peaks, and hope filled their hearts. Yet, upon reaching that peak, the terrifying descent toward an inevitable end became apparent. While climbing upward was slow and arduous, the descent was swift.
This quote from Maupassant fit well to describe the economy. The current situation in Japan resembled a hard fall, face-down in the dirt.
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